SDP and Partners Lead in Front of HDZ, Most in Third Place
According to the newest Cro Demoskop research, „People's Coalition“ (Narodna koalicija) led by SDP would be the relative winner of the elections with 34.4 percent of votes, while HDZ is second with 26.4 percent of votes. Most is third with 10.4 percent of votes, while Živi zid and partners hold fourth place with 6.4 percent of votes.
The latest Cro Demoskop research from Promocija plus agency, which was conducted from August 1st to August 3rd, shows the advantage of SDP’s coalition ahead of HDZ and its partners. On a scale of party preferences, the difference between SDP and HDZ was reduced and Most and Živi zid got increased electoral support. K.olinda Grabar Kitarović is at the top of the list of most positive politicians, followed by Zoran Milanović and Andrej Plenković. The most important theme last month was the dissolution of parliament and early elections.
Regular monthly survey from the agency Promocija plus on social and political preferences, CRO Demoskop, which was conducted in the period between the 1st and the 3rd of August, shows some very interesting findings: visible advantage of the People’s Coalition over HDZ with partners (this is an advantage bigger than the allowed standard error of the sample); a shift at the top of HDZ returned the part of voters to HDZ, which reduced the difference between the two major parties in party preferences, with a simultaneous slight increase in support for Most and Živi zid, but also the partial fall of support for HSS (probably out of frustration because of the signed coalition with SDP).
If the parliamentary elections were conducted in early August (on the principle of the whole Croatian as single constituency with turnout 52-58 percent), the People’s Coalition led by SDP would be the relative winner of the election. The top of the list with coalitions rating belongs to coalition led by SDP with 34,4 percent, while in second place is HDZ with partners with 26.4 percent (HDZ is independent in the elections with some smaller parties on their side, but only in some election units). Most is in third place with 10.4 percent, while Živi zid with partners is fourth with 6.4 percent. Coalition of parties BM 365 and Reformists have 2.1 percent of support, while the left coalition (Labour Party, OraH, Forward Croatia) recorded the electoral support of 1.7 percent.
Regional lists (coalitions around IDS and HDSSB) are at 1.4 percent of electoral support, while coalition of the rights’ parties and party Pametno has 1.2 percent of electoral support. Other parties and lists recorded a total support of 2.1 percent, with 11.5 percent of undecided. However, it is important to note that the preferences of the coalitions were detected on the basis of the available info about the coalitions before the start of the research (i.e. on August 1st).
On a scale of party preferences SDP is on the first place with a choice of 29.6 percent (which is 2.2 percentage points less than the results in July when the aid amounted to 31.8 percent, or very similar to that before the escalation of the political crisis in the country when it was 29.2 percent of the selection). HDZ had closed the gap on this scale and now captures the choice of 26 percent (about a month ago, or in the height of the political crisis, support was 22.7 percent). In this month’s survey, Most consolidate third place with a choice of 10.5 percent, which is an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the results in July (when the recorded electoral support was 9.8 percent).
Živi zid is in fourth place with a choice of 5.9% (compared to 5.3% in July). The two parties with a choice support between 2 and 3 percent: HNS (2.9%) and HSS (2.1%). Five parties are on the scale with the support of between 1 and 2 percent: BM 365 (1.7%), HSP AS and HDSSB (1.2%), IDS and Pametno (1.1%). Between 0.5 and 1 percent of the support are following five parties: Labour Party and OraH (0.9%), HSU (0.8%), HSLS (0.7%) and NS Reformists (0.5%). Other parties have a total choice of 1.4%, while 11.5% are undecided.
At the top of the list of Croatian politicians with the most positive image is Croatian president, Kolinda Grabar Kitarović, with a choice of 16.2 percent (compared to 17.1 percent in July, or 28.2% from last year August). “Neither one” recorded a choice of 14.2 percent (compared to 15.9 percent in July). SDP leader Zoran Milanović is in third place with a choice of 13.1% (versus 12.4% in July). In fourth place is the new president of the HDZ Andrej Plenković with a choice of 9.6 percent (compared to 7.5% in July). Božo Petrov is fifth with a choice of 6.0 percent (6.9 percent in July), followed by Ivan Sinčić with a choice of 5.4 percent (in July 5.2%). Among the ten most positive politicians are also Tihomir Orešković (5.4%), Tonino Picula (3.6%), Milan Bandić (3.4%) and Zlatko Hasanbegović (3.1%). Thus, among the ten most positive politicians two are from the SDP (Z. Milanović and Tonino Picula) and two from HDZ (A. Plenković and Z. Hasanbegović).
At the top of the list of Croatian politicians with the most negative image are Tomislav Karamarko and Zoran Milanović, but with a reverse trend: the reduction of choice of Karamarko and increase of choice of Milanovic. In this month’s survey, former HDZ president Tomislav Karamarko holds the first place with the choice of 31.6 percent (according to July’s 39.5%). His former main rival and leader of SDP, Zoran Milanović, is in the second place with a choice of 23.7 percent (compared to 19.7% last month). All politicians, as a separate category of response, were very common choice for most negative Croatian politicians (11.1%), while Zlatko Hasanbegović was in the fourth place with a choice of 6.3 percent (compared with 5% in July). Grabar Kitarović was fifth with a choice of 3.6 percent (July 2.7%). Among the top ten most negative domestic politicians are still Božo Petrov (3.1%), Ivo Sanader (2.1%), Tihomir Oresković (1.3%), Milorad Pupovac (1.3%) and Vesna Pusić (1, 0%).
Two themes were most distinguished in the choice of the most important topic or event this month: the dissolution of the Parliament/early elections as the most important issue for 33.1 percent of Croatian citizens, and terrorist attacks in France and Germany as the most important issue for 26.3%. Three more themes had a higher score: Andrej Plenković as a new president of the HDZ (9.4%), coup and purges in Turkey (7.4%) and the abolition of the verdict for Alojzije Stepinac (6.7% ). Five topics recorded a choice between 1 and 3 percent: good economic indicators (2.9%), the European student games in Zagreb and Rijeka (2.2%), the economic crisis in the country (1.9%), the affair with bonuses in Croatian forests from mandate of T. Jakovina (1.2%), IBM opens technical center in Croatia (1.0%). All other topics and events recorded a choice less then 1 percent.
The direction in which the country is moving supports only 10.1 percent of citizens (compared to 6.8 percent in July), while 75.2 percent think that Croatia is heading in the wrong direction (compared to 84.5 percent in July). Undecided are 14.7 percent of citizens. The largest share of optimistic notes are among the voters of HDZ (17.3%) and Most (16.4%). The voters of other parties are much less optimistic, or more pessimistic.
President of the Republic of Croatia got a C or 3.0 for her work (compared to 3.02 in July). The president had the highest score among voters of HDZ (4.19), the Party of BM 365 (3.61) and HSP AS (3.15). Lowest scores were recorded among voters of SDP (2.42), HNS (2.34), HSU and IDS (2.25), Reformists (1.80) and Pametno party (1.64).
While analyzing the results of this month’s research, one should keep in mind the following features of the environment (contextualization of research):
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• Research findings indicate the mood of the electorate in the period of the study (August 1st to August 3rd), and opinions on coalitions are based on the information about coalitions available at August 1st
• Findings determine voters’ preferences at the level of 52-58% turnout, with allowable statistical (standard) error of ± 2.7%
• The study was conducted on a postulation “whole of Croatia as a single constituency”
• The study was conducted in terms of the dissolution of Parliament and the call for early elections, a victory of A. Plenković at party elections in HDZ
Tags: Milan Bandić, Zoran Milanović, IDS, HDZ, SDP, HSS, Orah, Kolinda Grabar Kitarović, Most, Živi zid, Tihomir Orešković, Božo Petrov, Pametno, elections, croatian elections, HNS, HSU, HDSSB, parliamentary elections in Croatia, croatian elections poll, Andrej Plenković, BM 365, HSP AS, Labour Party, NS Reformists