HRCan Flego and Pupovac Together Surprise Petrov and Most in the EU Elections?
At this moment, it seems that if voter turnout matches survey results, HDZ is expected to win 5 seats (it's unlikely they'll lose the 5th seat as they did in 2020, demonstrating how D'Hondt's method rewards a strong first place). SDP is projected to win 4 seats (dependent on voter motivation for their supporters as well as those of Možemo, with field surveys typically showing them lower and Možemo higher). Možemo is likely to secure at least 1 seat, as is DP with 1 seat. The final seat in the EP will likely be contested between Božo Petrov of Most and Valter Flego of IDS (who needs to secure more preferential votes than Milorad Pupovac of SDSS). We will find out the results on June 9. For SDP, it’s important to note the strong preferential vote competition between Tonino Picula and Bojan Glavašević on their list, which could boost their total votes and make it more likely they will secure the 4th seat. The threshold for the final seat will be at least 65,000 votes, assuming half the turnout of the parliamentary elections, which is still a very high bar.
Projection of the distribution of seats in the European Parliament elections according to the latest public opinion polls.
At the end of April, we made an initial projection of the possible seat distribution in the EU elections on our blog based on the results of the 2024 parliamentary elections, held on April 17, 2024. Since then, HDZ and DP have formed a new government, the Raspudić couple has left Most, and Milorad Pupovac and his SDSS are no longer part of the ruling majority.
Each campaign has its own dynamics and much can change during the campaign, especially in the final two weeks, which we are now deeply into. Therefore, it would be good to see what the latest public opinion polls say about the EU elections. The most recent and detailed survey was published by NOVA TV at the end of May, conducted through ISPOS’s regular monthly CROBarometer survey.
Dnevnik Nove TV presents the first survey on the European elections: Many well-known faces do not cross the electoral threshold – HDZ 28.5%, SDP 17.8%, Možemo 9.90%, DP 7.40%, Most 5.40%, and IDS and partners 3.80%, with a high 14.90% undecided and 33.2% saying they will definitely vote in the EU elections, indicating a slightly higher turnout than in 2019 but still practically half of the turnout in the parliamentary elections in April. Interestingly, TikTok star Nina Skočak with her Gen Z list achieves over 2% in the survey, so it will be interesting to see how she converts her TikTok followers into voters. Translating these results into seats using the D’Hondt method for 12 seats gives an intriguing result compared to the parliamentary elections.
Schedule of the EU mandate in 2024 according to Crobarometer
Apparently without significant changes – HDZ stable at 5 seats (potentially 6 if they achieve close to 35%, which isn’t impossible as they now eye a 13th seat), SDP wins 3 seats, but nearly 4, as Možemo, crossing the 10% mark, joins the race for that seat and has a chance to take two seats. Domovinski Pokret (DP) holds a stable 1 seat, while Most sits at the rear with 1 seat. The last, 12th seat goes to Možemo with a result of 5.82%, which also represents the threshold needed to win a seat.
Surveys measure voter sentiment at a particular moment and we model what could happen on election day based on these. Therefore, considering survey errors and possible developments, the Most list led by Božo Petrov could range from 3.7-7.1%, and the IDS list led by Valter Flego from 2.4-5.2%, meaning both lists could be in the running for that final seat. Especially since IDS has gathered an interesting and broad coalition where large numbers, alongside Matija Posavec, could also bring in minorities, primarily Serbs led by Milorad Pupovac, who is also on the list (and who secured 11,660 preferential votes that are hard to detect with this type of survey). This was well noted by Istarski.hr’s commentary – First survey before the EU elections: Valter Flego or Božo Petrov?.
Telegram.hr published the results of a telephone survey by Promocija Plus in early May, likely conducted for SDP – We have the results of the first EU Parliament poll: HDZ slightly ahead of SDP, Kolakušić and the big liberal coalition facing disaster. One seat each for Možemo!, DP, and Most – showing similar results with HDZ at 30.6%, SDP at 24.2%, Možemo at 7.5%, DP at 6.7%, and Most at 5.4%. IDS’s coalition scored 2.3% then, now 3.8%, a significant increase between two surveys. It’s recommended that when publishing survey results, all data from the commissioner to the details of the survey time and method, as well as the margin of error, be transparently disclosed, as this is the standard achieved in Croatia for publishing surveys – all national television networks set a good example of how this should be done.
We can expect another telephone survey of this type before the end of the campaign, just before the elections, through RTL’s regular CroDemoskop survey, allowing for more precise election outcome predictions. However, predicting results for elections with low turnout is challenging, as ratings include those likely to vote, but most of them ultimately do not vote in the EU elections, unlike in parliamentary ones.
Tags: parliament elections in Croatia, EU elections, election analysis, election polls, parliamentary election, CroBarometar, Ipsos
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