HRHigher voter turnout benefits the left, but spotted coalitions are needed for victory
A higher voter turnout in the 2024 elections represents a positive step for democracy, fostering greater political engagement among citizens. However, to fully leverage the advantages of increased turnout, targeted coalitions are needed within the existing electoral system. It has been demonstrated that the joint efforts of major left-wing parties, such as SDP and Možemo!, can lead to better electoral outcomes and the creation of a stronger political force in parliament capable of competing with dominant parties like HDZ. In this electoral system, only through collective action can stronger political influence and changes in government be achieved.
The increase in the number of voters in the Croatian parliamentary elections in 2024 compared to 2020
The analysis by Professor Dr. Bert Šalaj, reported by the Telegram portal under the title ‘Esteemed professor reveals clear aumbers after the election: ‘Možemo!’s mistake is quite obvious. They must decide whether they even want to be in power,’ presents some interesting findings regarding the recently held parliamentary elections in Croatia, the results of which have sparked widespread discussion.
One of the key points that marked this election cycle is the significant increase in voter turnout. A turnout of 61.5% represents a substantial advancement in the democratic process compared to previous elections and can primarily be attributed to the so-called Milanović effect – as the involvement of the president in the electoral processes led to greater voter interest in the elections themselves.
TABLE 1: Significant Increase in Voter Turnout Between 2020 and 2024, and Compared to Previous Election Cycles
The analysis of the election results confirmed the thesis that higher voter turnout favors left-wing political options. SDP and Možemo!, as well as Most on the right, achieved significant gains in the number of votes compared to the previous elections.
TABLE 2: Displaying how higher voter turnout has reflected in the increase of votes for individual options.
Looking at the table showing the percentage share of each party in the overall increase in the number of voters, we see that the opposition achieved a larger share of this increase than HDZ and even DP. These data clearly indicate that higher voter turnout benefits left-wing options. The other question is why this did not translate into better results in the elections themselves. The main reason is that both HDZ and DP managed to mobilize additional voters to the extent that, due to the electoral system, compensated for the growth of the opposition options.
TABLE 3: Share of each party in the total increase of the number of voters and the percentage contribution of each party to the total number of new voters.
The need for coalitions
The analysis also confirms the importance of forming pre-election coalitions within the existing electoral system, particularly among left-wing spectrum parties. Insufficiently coordinated campaigns in elections can result in a loss of mandates and weaker influence in government formation, as was ultimately the case in the 2024. elections. A comparison between the 2020. elections and the recently held ones indicates that SDP and Možemo! could have achieved a significantly better result in terms of mandates through strategic coalitions in certain electoral units (primarily IV, V, IX, X, possibly also VII), thus complicating the government formation process after the elections. Možemo! believed they could secure these crucial mandates independently, but ultimately, all parties, except HDZ and DP, ended up as losers, enabling the formation of a parliamentary majority. Not to mention that their separate campaigns in other electoral units resulted in fewer mandates compared to the potential outcome of a joint effort, as confirmed by the analysis.
A grand coalition of the left would defeat HDZ
The situation after the recently held elections further underscores the need for the main left-wing parties to jointly participate in parliamentary elections. Had they campaigned together, SDP and Možemo! would have secured six more mandates, totaling 58 instead of the 52 they obtained separately.
Additional mandates would have been gained in the first, second, fourth, eighth, ninth, and tenth units, with three mandates taken from HDZ and three from DP. The overall outcome would have been significantly different, at least in terms of the ten electoral units.
In such a scenario, SDP and Možemo! would have had 58 mandates, while HDZ would have had 55, better reflecting the fact that SDP and Možemo! together received about 30,000 more votes than HDZ. With such joint participation in elections, higher voter turnout would have been fully realized.
In this way, SDP and Možemo!, inspired by Milanović, managed to repeat the mistake of Zoran Milanović in 2007., when he decided to confront Ivo Sanader alone. Although the opposition collectively won more votes, they ended up with fewer mandates than HDZ, thus granting them victory, despite corruption allegations, which later proved to be more justified and severe than those of 2024.
We extensively covered this in the post Voter turnout and results of parliamentary elections in Croatia from 2000. to 2011., but evidently, some must lose elections multiple times to learn the lesson.
Higher turnout and coalitions are key to change
A higher voter turnout in the 2024. elections represents a positive step for democracy, encouraging greater political engagement among citizens. However, to fully capitalize on the advantages of increased turnout, targeted coalitions are necessary within the existing electoral system. It has been proven that the joint efforts of major left-wing parties, such as SDP and Možemo!, can lead to better electoral outcomes and the creation of a stronger political force in parliament capable of competing with dominant parties like HDZ. In this electoral system, only through collective action can stronger political influence and changes in government be achieved.
Berto Šalaj: (Un)learned lessons, available at: https://analihpd.hr/nenaucene-lekcije/, accessed May 17, 2024.
Also read following…
