Results of parliamentary elections 2015-2020 – what is important to note?

by Krešimir Macan, 3. April 2024.

Following the interest sparked by the analysis of possible seat distribution in the 2024 elections and numerous comments, I believe it is necessary to discern the following trends from 2015-2020, which will continue into 2024 - and it is difficult to expect them to simply reverse. The main trend is that major parties, primarily the main opposition party, SDP (Social democrats) and to some extent the ruling HDZ (Christian democrats), are losing the dominant position they held for years as new enduring options are forming, either on the left or the right, over the course of several election cycles.

After the analysis “How many seats in the 2024 parliamentary elections does HDZ win, and how many does Rijeke pravde calculate?” and numerous comments, I believe it is necessary to discern the following trends from 2015-2020, which will continue into 2024 – and it is difficult to expect them to simply reverse (although one should not exclude the possibility of a turnaround similar to what recently happened in Poland, which may have been an inspiration to President Milanović – “Poland the day after the election surprise: ‘I have never been so happy in my life about another place‘). The main trend is that major parties, primarily SDP and to some extent HDZ, are losing the dominant position they held for years as new enduring options are forming, either on the left or the right, over the course of several election cycles (we have been witnessing this for a long time in Spain or Slovenia). Below are detailed election results, with the most important points highlighted:

2015 HDZ 56 SDP 56 Other left-wing parties 5 Other right-wing parties 23 (although half of the 19 MOST votes were left politicians) – 28 others

2016 HDZ 59 SDP 54 Other left-wing parties 11 Other right-wing parties 16 – 27 others

2020 HDZ 63 SDP 41 Other left-wing parties 12 Other right-wing parties 24 – 36 others (turnout below average)

My model

2024 HDZ 59 SDP 41 Other left-wing parties 17 Other right-wing parties 23 – 40 others

Firstly, it is clear that the electoral system, based on average turnout, gives more, conditionally speaking, right-wing mandates than left-wing ones.

Secondly, there is a clear trend of SDP decline throughout the cycles, and now that trend is starting with HDZ after its record-breaking 63 seats in 2020 with a very low turnout.

Thirdly, there is a clear trend of stable third options. Možemo (Green left party), MOST (Conservatives), or DP (Right-wing) cannot completely disappear for SDP or HDZ to grow significantly; the scene has simply divided, and the electoral system works in favor of the right as long as the average turnouts persist.

Find detailed election results from 2015-2020 below.

2015.