![\"\"](\"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Croatian-Parliament-seats-projection-by-Kresimir-Macan-1.png\")
Croatian Parliament seats projection by Kre\u0161imir Macan<\/p><\/div>\n
This is just one model to show how difficult it is to make any forecasts in a system with ten electoral units since each one has its own story. However, the release of the lists has clarified some things.<\/span><\/p>\n First and foremost, following a nudge from President Zoran Milanovi\u0107 to SDP (Socialdemocrats), the Rijeke pravde coalition (centre\/centre left coalition), consisting of SDP, Centar, and other partners, can expect results on par with the previous elections. This is great because they are not joining forces with some of the partners they were with last time, which achieved the same outcome. But this is also limiting because there isn’t much room for growth given that their competitors on the left include Mo\u017eemo! (left green party), Fokus\/Republika (liberal coalition), Nezavisna platforma sjever (Regional Party), Radni\u010dka fronta (Left Wing), IDS\/PGS (Istria regional party\/Primorje regional party), and even Richard nezavisni (Independent), while HDZ faces threats from the right with the Domovinski pokret (Right Wing) and Most (Conservatives) parties, as well as Odlu\u010dnost i pravednost (Right Wing) by Karolina Vidovi\u0107 Kri\u0161to and numerous small right-wing options that again are all entering fragmented.<\/span><\/p>\n An additional factor stabilizing the number of seats compared to the 2020 elections is the fact that pensioner options, as well as far-right ones, are divided \u2013 HSU (Pensioners\u2019 interests) party is joining HDZ as a coalition partner, while the political platform Penzioneri zajedno (Pensioners’ interests parties coaliton) is running independently and barely falls below the threshold in all electoral units. One of the main battles of this election will indeed be for the pensioners’ votes, as evidenced by the addresses of all leaders to this demographic group.<\/span><\/p>\n The foundation was based on the <\/span>results of the 2020 parliamentary elections<\/span><\/a> and the available public opinion research to date, including the <\/span>latest publicly available public opinion poll, Crobarometar, from March 25, 2024<\/span><\/a>. You can also take a look at the model for the 2020 elections \u2013 <\/span>Elections 2020: Small parties on the left may disrupt the plans of Restart<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n I. Electoral Unit – Zagreb Center and East<\/strong><\/p>\n The winners from the 2020 elections, HDZ, are entering into a coalition with the HSLS (liberals), HDS (Christian Democrats), HNS (liberals), and HSU (pensioners intrests) at the national level. In this electoral unit, they can expect to secure four seats, one less than in 2020, as evidenced by their candidate list: 1. Andrej Plenkovi\u0107, 2. \u017deljko Reiner, 3. Nina Obuljen Kor\u017einek, 4. Kre\u0161imir A\u010dkar (the mayor of Velika Gorica), marking a slight decrease from their previous performance.<\/span><\/p>\n The Rijeke pravde centre left coalition, consisting of SDP, Centar, HSS, SiP, Reformisti, and Glas, is also anticipating four seats, which is an increase of one seat compared to their last outing. Their running champions are 1. Arsen Bauk, 2. Dalija Ore\u0161kovi\u0107, 3. Branko Kolari\u0107, 4. Marijana Puljak. Lana Pavi\u0107 from the Centar party might attempt to make a significant impact through preferential votes, though it will be quite a challenge.<\/span><\/p>\n Mo\u017eemo! last secured three seats, with no change expected this time, although there’s a hope for a fourth seat given the list’s lineup \u2013 1. Sandra Ben\u010di\u0107, 2. Ivana Kekin, 3. Damir Baki\u0107, 4. Teodor Celakoski. With the electoral unit now purely encompassing Zagreb up to Velika Gorica, there’s a chance that the left could outperform the right in terms of seats, despite the large number of candidates and lists likely causing some votes to fall below the 5% threshold.<\/span><\/p>\n MOST, in coalition with the Hrvatski suverenisti (right wing), HKS (Conservatives) , and NLM (youth party), is expected to maintain their single seat, likely to be won by Marija Selak Raspudi\u0107.<\/span><\/p>\n Domovinski pokret and their partners Pravo i Pravda (right wing) intend to surpass their single-seat tally (unchanged from last time) with a strategic lineup featuring two prominent names \u2013 1. Mislav Kolaku\u0161i\u0107, 2. Zlatko Hasanbegovi\u0107. However, their efforts might be thwarted by Karolina Vidovi\u0107 Kri\u0161to (+1) from her party, Odlu\u010dnost i pravednost, which has apparently assessed its best chances in the heart of Zagreb.<\/span><\/p>\n Damir Van\u0111eli\u0107 from the Republika\/Fokus coalition and Davorko Vidovi\u0107 from the coalition consisting of Socijaldemokrati (Socialdemocrats), IDS, PGS, Laburisti and Demokrati (centre left) are hopeful to outperform the favorites. In the following, I won’t detail the coalitions as extensively since they largely repeat across all electoral districts except in the 7th and 8th, where the Reformisti (centre left) switch coalitions.<\/span><\/p>\n II. Electoral Unit – East Zagreb to Bjelovar<\/strong><\/p>\n HDZ aims to secure 6 seats (no change) with its heavy hitters leading the list: 1. Gordan Jandrokovi\u0107 2. Krunoslav Kati\u010di\u0107 3. Dario Hrebak 4. Ante Deur 5. Gordan Grli\u0107-Radman 6. Miro Totgergeli \u2013 with the sixth seat being potentially up for grabs.<\/span><\/p>\n The Rijeke pravde coalition is hoping to gain a fifth seat (+1) in a slightly more right-leaning electoral district, which is quite ambitious \u2013 1. Boris Lalovac 2. Tanja Sokoli\u0107 3. Anka Mrak-Tarita\u0161 4. Tomislav Golubi\u0107 5. Davorka Moslavac Forjan.<\/span><\/p>\n Their plan could be thwarted by any member of the trio \u2013 Damir Bajs from Fokus\/Republika coalition seeking a seat, Domovinski pokret securing 1 seat (-1) \u2013 1. Tomislav Josi\u0107, or MOST\u2013 with two heavyweights 1. Nino Raspudi\u0107 2. Trpimir Golu\u017ea, currently holding 1 seat (no change). Additionally, renowned handball player Vlado \u0160ola, representing the Socijaldemokrati, might also disrupt their calculations.<\/span><\/p>\n Mo\u017eemo! is expecting to maintain its single seat (no change) \u2013 1. Danijela Dolenec.<\/span><\/p>\n III. Electoral Unit \u2013 North Croatia \u2013 Krapina, Vara\u017edin, \u010cakovec<\/strong><\/p>\n The Rijeke pravde coalition aim for 6 seats (no change) in a somewhat left-leaning electoral district, now that they have the Reformisti in their coalition. The list includes: 1. Sini\u0161a Hajda\u0161 Don\u010di\u0107 2. Barbara Antoli\u0107 Vupora 3. \u017deljko Kolar 4. Bo\u0161ka Ban Vlahek 5. Miroslav Markovi\u0107 6. Jasenka Augu\u0161tan-Pentek. They could, however, be taken by surprise through preferential votes by Natalija Martin\u010devi\u0107 from Reformisti, positioned seventh on the list.<\/span><\/p>\n HDZ appears solid with 5 seats (no change), now in alliance with the HNS. Their candidates are 1. An\u0111elko Stri\u010dak 2. Zoran Gregurovi\u0107 3. Ljubomir Kolarek 4. Predrag \u0160tromar 5. Damir Habijan \u2013 notably at a pivotal fifth spot.<\/span><\/p>\n Mo\u017eemo! anticipates gaining an additional seat (+1) \u2013 with 1. Luka Korlaet, similar to the <\/span>Nezavisna platforma sjevera<\/span> led by Matija Posavec (+1), while the Domovinski pokret maintains its single seat (no change) \u2013 1. Davor Dretar.<\/span><\/p>\n Contending for a seat is a champion for the victims of Swiss Franc loans and one of the more notable representatives up to 2020, Goran Aleksi\u0107 for Fokus\/Republika, from the 14th place on an independent list. The presidential challenger of 2019, Dario Juri\u010dan, is also in the race, while MOST hopes for a seat with their duo 1. \u017deljko Sa\u010di\u0107 2. Robert Podolnjak, despite not having one in 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n IV. Electoral Unit – Eastern Slavonia from Koprivnica to Osijek<\/strong><\/p>\n HDZ, in one of their strongholds, anticipates winning 7 seats (-1) with the following candidates: 1. Ivan Anu\u0161i\u0107, 2. Igor Androvi\u0107, 3. Darko Sobota, 4. Ivan Radi\u0107, 5. Nata\u0161a Trami\u0161ak, 6. Goran Ivanovi\u0107, and 7. Josip \u0110aki\u0107.<\/span><\/p>\n The Rijeke pravde coalition is aiming for 3 seats (no change) \u2013 1. Mi\u0161el Jak\u0161i\u0107, Mayor of Koprivnica, 2. Sanja Bje\u017ean\u010devi\u0107, and 3. Boris Pili\u017eota, with Biljana Borzan posing a threat from the 14th position through preferential votes.<\/span><\/p>\n Domovinski pokret might maintain 2 seats (-1) \u2013 1. Mario Radi\u0107 and 2. Jesenka Ricl, although they are hoping to secure a third seat through preferential votes for \u017deljko Lackovi\u0107, an independent from the Koprivnica-Kri\u017eevci County, now part of this electoral district.<\/span><\/p>\n MOST\u2013 1. Josip Sko\u010dibu\u0161i\u0107 and Mo\u017eemo! with 1. Katarina Kruhonja could each gain their first seats (each +1).<\/span><\/p>\n The Socijaldemokrati will attempt to win 1 seat with 1. Domagoj Hajdukovi\u0107.<\/span><\/p>\n V. Electoral Unit – From Vukovar to Nova Gradi\u0161ka and Slavonski Brod<\/strong><\/p>\n HDZ is poised for a slight decrease, expecting one seat less for a total of 7 (-1) \u2013 1. Marin Pileti\u0107 2. Ivan Bosan\u010di\u0107 3. Pero \u0106osi\u0107 4. Antonija Jozi\u0107 5. Nikola Ma\u017ear 6. Danijel Maru\u0161i\u0107 7. \u017deljko Glavi\u0107 \u2013 with the following currently below the threshold: 8. Josip \u0160ari\u0107 9. Tomislav Zadro.<\/span><\/p>\n This electoral district is also a stronghold for the Domovinski pokret, which is projected to retain its 3 seats without any changes \u2013 1. Ivan Penava 2. Josip Dabro 3. Dubravka Lipovac Pehar. However, they’re potentially losing one seat (+1) to 1. Marijan Pavli\u010dek from Hrvatski suverenisti, who are in a coalition with MOST.<\/span><\/p>\n Rijeke pravde coalition is expected to maintain their standard 3 seats, showing no change \u2013 1. Predrag Fred Mati\u0107 2. Martina Vla\u0161i\u0107 Iljki\u0107 3. Mario Milinkovi\u0107. Also seeking an opportunity is 1. Dario Mareni\u0107, an entrepreneur from Nova Gradi\u0161ka, representing Fokus\/Republika.<\/span><\/p>\n VI. Electoral Unit – West Zagreb, Samobor, Zapre\u0161i\u0107 and Jastrebarsko<\/strong><\/p>\n Although this electoral district has undergone quite a few changes since 2020, the leading candidates largely remain the same. HDZ anticipates securing the same six seats (no change) – with Davor Bo\u017einovi\u0107 at the forefront, followed by Vili Bero\u0161, Mislav Herman, Marko Primorac, \u017deljko Turk, and Davor Ivo Stier. Similarly, the Rijeke pravde coalition expects at least four seats (no change) \u2013 led by Mihael Zmajlovi\u0107, Marija Lugari\u0107, Kre\u0161o Beljak, and Ivan Ra\u010dan, with Alka Vuica possibly securing the 14th spot.<\/span><\/p>\n This potential fifth seat for Rijeke pravde is likely being edged out by Fokus\/Republika, not through its top candidate Davor Na\u0111i, but rather through the preferential votes for Dario Zurovec, the mayor of Sveta Nedelja, positioned at 14th.<\/span><\/p>\n Mo\u017eemo! is counting on one seat (no change) – with Tomislav Toma\u0161evi\u0107 at the helm, who will delegate his parliamentary duties to Ur\u0161a Raukar-Gamulin due to the incompatibility of holding multiple offices.<\/span><\/p>\n Domovinski pokret is expected to secure at least one seat (a decrease of one) \u2013 with Igor Peternel leading, as well as the Most party\u2019s Nikola Grmoja.<\/span><\/p>\n VII. Electoral Unit – From Sisak to Lika and Gorski kotar to Matulji and Novalja<\/strong><\/p>\n Despite being significantly affected by the changes, HDZ can anticipate a similar outcome of securing 6 seats (no change), although they aspire for at least 8, given the strong and well-known names on their list. This includes the president of HSU, Gabri\u010devi\u0107, and one of the wartime commanders of the defense of Dubrovnik\u20141. Tomo Medved 2. Ivan Celjak, the prefect of Sisak-Moslavina County 3. Martina Furdek-Hajdin 4. Marijana Petir 5. Ernest Petry, the prefect of Lika-Senj County 6. Veselko Gabri\u010devi\u0107, with the currently non-qualifying 7. Nikolina Brnjac 8. Majda Buri\u0107, who will still enter the Parliament as deputies for the two prefects.<\/span><\/p>\n SDP also has strong candidates for this electoral unit, expecting to win 5 seats (an increase of 1)\u20141. Kristina Iki\u0107 Bani\u010dek, the mayor of Sisak 2. Ivica Lukanovi\u0107, an entrepreneur and former mayor of Kastav, likely to succeed Zlatko Komadina as the prefect of Primorje-Gorski Kotar County 3. Sandra Krpan, deputy mayor of Rijeka 4. Dalibor Domitrovi\u0107 5. Branka Bak\u0161i\u0107-Miti\u0107 from Glina, and symbolically at the 14th position, Vojko Obersnel, the former long-term mayor of Rijeka.<\/span><\/p>\n Mo\u017eemo! expects to secure 1 seat, as do Domovinski pokret with 1. Josip Jur\u010devi\u0107 and MOST with 1. Zvonimir Troskot, all expecting 1 seat each (no change).<\/span><\/p>\n They will face competition from the Hrvatska Stranka Prava (right wing) with 1. Ante Prka\u010din, and the Reformisti, who, unlike in the eighth electoral district, are not aligning with the SDP but with the IDS and PGS\u20141. Alenka Ko\u0161i\u0161a \u010ci\u010din-\u0160ain, as well as the Socijaldemokrati with 1. Nata\u0161a Novakovi\u0107. This presents the curiosity that two former presidents of the Commission for the Resolution of Conflicts of Interest are candidates in the new elections, with Dalija Ore\u0161kovi\u0107 almost certainly returning to Parliament.<\/span><\/p>\n VIII. Electoral Unit – Rijeka, Istria and islands<\/strong><\/p>\n I must disclose that I’m part of the IDS-PGS coalition for this election, giving me a deep understanding of the dynamics in this electoral district, which could potentially see the most surprises. The situation here is fluid and could easily shift.<\/p>\n Rijeke pravde coalition, in their stronghold, face numerous challengers, but currently, they can confidently expect 4 seats (previously, they formed a coalition with IDS and PGS, so we might say that’s a decrease of one seat). It’s clear from the composition of their list that they are targeting a fifth seat – 1. Pe\u0111a Grbin 2. Mirela Ahmetovi\u0107 3. Zlatko Komadina 4. Sanja Radolovi\u0107 5. Sa\u0161a \u0110uji\u0107. However, they might fall short of votes for that fifth seat, possibly needing support from the Radni\u010dka fronta (left wing), with 1. Katarina Peovi\u0107, or from those in Fokus\/Republika, who are running for the first time with the renowned entrepreneur from Pula, 1. Gordana Deranja.<\/p>\n HDZ aims to secure more than the 4 seats they are currently confident of, which would be a significant achievement if they manage to replicate their performance from the last election (no change) – 1. Oleg Butkovi\u0107 2. Anton Kliman 3. Josip Ostrogovi\u0107 4. Tomislav Klari\u0107.<\/p>\n IDS is part of a broad centre and centre left coalition – Primorsko Goranski Savez, Unija Kvarnera, Istarska Stranka Umirovljenika, Socijaldemokrati, Reformisti, Demokrati, and Hrvatski Laburisti – 1. Dalibor Paus 2. Darijo Vasili\u0107 3. Valter Glavi\u010di\u0107 4. Loris Per\u0161uri\u0107, aiming to secure a fourth seat for the first time, which seems within reach (+1). However, the campaign’s final details and the election day dynamics will be crucial.<\/p>\n MOST is expected to retain 1 seat (no change) with 1. Marin Mileti\u0107. It remains to be seen who will secure 1 seat for Mo\u017eemo – either 1. Du\u0161ica Radoj\u010di\u0107 or 14. Suzana Ja\u0161i\u0107, the mayor of Pazin, potentially increasing their seats to two.<\/p>\n Domovinski Pokret hopes for a surprise with 1. Ivan Vilibor Sin\u010di\u0107 leading the charge.<\/p>\n IX. Electoral Unit – Zadar, \u0160ibenik, Trogir, Sinj to Ka\u0161tela and Solin<\/strong><\/p>\n In this stronghold, HDZ can anticipate securing 7 seats (a decrease of one) due to the significant competition on the right – 1. Ivan Malenica 2. \u0160ime Erli\u0107 3. Ante Sanader 4. Branka Juri\u010dev-Martin\u010dev 5. Josip Bilaver 6. Ivan Bugarin 7. Hrvoje Zekanovi\u0107, with additional support for 14. \u017deljko Buri\u0107, the mayor of \u0160ibenik.<\/p>\n Rijeke pravde coalition is expected to maintain their 3 seats (no change) – 1. Sabina Glasovac 2. Ton\u010di Restovi\u0107 3. Irena Dragi\u0107, facing competition from their former colleagues in the Socijaldemokrati – 1. Franko Vidovi\u0107, and from Mo\u017eemo! – 1. Maja \u0160inti\u0107.<\/p>\n Domovinski Pokret is down to 1 seat (a loss of one) – 1. Damir Biloglav, similar to MOST (no change) – 1. Miro Bulj. A single seat could also be won by the former mayor of Knin and the current \u0160ibenik-Knin County prefect, 1. Marko Jeli\u0107 from Akcija za promjene (whose 16,557 votes in the first round of the 2021 county elections are more than enough for at least one seat), and 1. Marin Pijaca from the newly formed party Richard Nezavisni Enio Me\u0161trovi\u0107 (his 5,346 votes in the 2021 Zadar local elections might not be enough for a seat on their own, but knowing Enio, an entertaining show is expected), who also personally ran in the 10th electoral district.<\/p>\n It will be intriguing to follow the outcome for the Hrvatska stranka prava, which evidently believes it can win a seat here, just look at their list – 1. \u017deljko Glasnovi\u0107 2. Angelo \u017dili\u0107 3. Marko Skejo 4. Luka Podrug.<\/p>\n X. Electoral Unit – From Split to Dubrovnik<\/strong><\/p>\n If HDZ once again secures 7 seats as in the previous elections (no change), the question arises about who will be left without a seat on the right. The list is strong – 1. Branko Ba\u010di\u0107 2. Bla\u017eenko Boban 3. Tomislav \u0160uta 4. Mato Frankovi\u0107 5. Andro Krstulovi\u0107 Opara 6. Marija Vu\u010dkovi\u0107 7. Danica Bari\u010devi\u0107, with Damir Krsti\u010devi\u0107 in the 14th spot to draw in preferential votes.<\/p>\n If that remains, MOST will have one seat (a loss of one) – 1. Bo\u017eo Petrov, as will Domovinski Pokret (no change) – 1. Stipo Mlinari\u0107.<\/p>\n Thanks to the Centar party, the Rijeke pravde coalition can count on at least 4 seats (+1) – 1. Ranko Ostoji\u0107 2. Ivica Puljak 3. Ivana Markovi\u0107 4. Mi\u0161o Krsti\u010devi\u0107 \u2013 all prominent names of mayors.<\/p>\n Mo\u017eemo! and the political platform Sr\u0111 je Grad will aim for an additional seat (+1) – 1. \u0110uro Capor \u2013 otherwise, that seat likely goes to the Rijeke pravde coalition. Of course, unless Richard Nezavisni – 1. Enio Me\u0161trovi\u0107 mixes things up.<\/p>\n XI. Electoral Unit – Bosnia and Herzegovina and rest of the World\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n It’s expected that HDZ will retain all 3 seats from 2020 (no change) – 1. Zvonko Milas 2. Nevenko Barbari\u0107 3. Radoje Vidovi\u0107, although President Zoran Milanovi\u0107 will also attempt to secure a seat for Rijeke pravde (despite SDP, by his decision, never running a list in the 11th Electoral District since 2007). Generals from Hrvatsko bilo – 1. Ljubo \u0106esi\u0107 2. Ivan Tolj, will also vie for that seat.<\/p>\n And there we have it at the end \u2013 this also answers why President Zoran Milanovi\u0107 didn\u2019t wish to resign from the presidency to campaign \u2013 he is the one who will grant the mandate to anyone who brings him 76 signatures as he did in 2020. With HDZ\u2019s 62 seats and 8 minority seats, they need just 6 more hands to succeed. Forming a coalition around the Rijeke pravde coalition will be much more challenging \u2013 you can do the math.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/I.-IJ-procjena-2024.jpg\")
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