{"id":43329,"date":"2024-04-25T14:11:15","date_gmt":"2024-04-25T12:11:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/?p=43329"},"modified":"2024-04-25T15:33:18","modified_gmt":"2024-04-25T13:33:18","slug":"forecast-of-the-results-of-the-2024-eu-elections-based-on-the-results-of-the-2024-parliamentary-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/politics-and-elections\/forecast-of-the-results-of-the-2024-eu-elections-based-on-the-results-of-the-2024-parliamentary-elections","title":{"rendered":"Forecast of the results of the 2024 EU elections based on the results of the 2024 parliamentary elections."},"content":{"rendered":"

Let’s model the possible result of the EU elections in Croatia based on the results of the parliamentary elections held on April 17. First, let’s look at the detailed results of the 2024 parliamentary elections.<\/p>\n

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If we use the results of the parliamentary elections using D’Hondt’s method to the possible mandates in the EU elections, the result is as follows – 5 HDZ (Christian Democrats\/EPP), 4 SDP (Socialdemocrats\/S&D), 1 DP (Right wing\/ECR), 1 Mo\u017eemo (Green left wing\/Greens\/EFA) and Most 1 (Conservatives\/ECR) – the threshold for skipping the 12th mandate is a high 6.48%. So it will not be enough to cross the electoral threshold of 5%, but to win at least the specified percentage.<\/p>\n

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If we look at Croatia as one electoral unit, which it is in the EU elections, then the results of the parliamentary elections are as follows with a turnout of 61.44%:
\n\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"Projekcija

Kre\u0161imir Macan’s projection of the distribution of seats in the elections for the European Parliament<\/p><\/div>\n

We have to take into account that the turnout in the last EU elections in 2019 was only 29.85%, so this is a factor that can significantly affect the final results. However, if we assume that the turnout will be the same as in 2019, then for the 12th border mandate, around 67,350 votes are needed, which gives chances to some other lists as well, such as the one put together by IDS (Istrian regionalist party\/Renew Europe) and the minority gathered around MEP Valter Flego (Renew Europe) and then border 12. SDP loses the mandate.<\/p>\n

Just as a reminder, using similar analyzes and based on previous experience, we modeled the results of the parliamentary elections in 2024 quite precisely, 62:41, while the real result in the end was 61:42 – Calculate yourselves how many seats HDZ and Rijeke pravde could win at the 2024 parliamentary elections<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If we use the results of the parliamentary elections using D’Hondt’s method to the possible mandates in the EU elections, the result is as follows – 5 HDZ (Christian Democrats\/EPP), 4 SDP (Socialdemocrats\/S&D), 1 DP (Right wing\/ECR), 1 Mo\u017eemo (Green left wing\/Greens\/EFA) and 1 Most (Conservatives\/ECR) – the threshold for skipping the 12th mandate is a high 6.48%. So it will not be enough to cross the electoral threshold of 5%, but to win at least the specified percentage. If it is about the turnout of 29.85%, as it was in the last EU elections in 2019, then for the 12th border mandate, about 67,350 votes are needed, which gives chances to some other lists, such as the one put together by IDS and the minorities gathered around the EU parliamentarian SDP loses that mandate to Valter Flego (IDS\/Renew).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":43319,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_stopmodifiedupdate":false,"_modified_date":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2836,2677,2673],"tags":[3706,3715,3726,3762,3763,3764,3765,3766,3767],"class_list":["post-43329","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-public-relations","category-news","category-politics-and-elections","tag-hdz-en","tag-sdp-en","tag-croatian-2024-elections","tag-european-elections","tag-eu-elections","tag-eu-elections-in-croatia","tag-european-parliament","tag-european-parliament-elections","tag-ep-elections-croatia"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/20240425_Raspodjela_Mandata_EP_Macan.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43329","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43329"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43329\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":43338,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43329\/revisions\/43338"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/43319"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43329"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43329"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43329"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}