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County prefects forecast \u2013 local elections 2025<\/p><\/div>\n
All things considered, HDZ could face challenges in as many as seven counties, most of which are at risk from SDP. SDP might take control of Pula, but could lose Sisak, while HDZ is at risk of losing Dubrovnik.<\/p>\n
Slavonia: Stability with a Dose of Uncertainty in Vukovar and Vukovar-Srijem County<\/strong><\/h3>\nIn Vukovar-Srijem County<\/strong>, the race to succeed current prefect Franjo Ore\u0161kovi\u0107 (HDZ) is heating up. The frontrunner is Ivan Bosan\u010di\u0107 (HDZ),<\/strong> current mayor of Vinkovci, running with the support of the Homeland Movement (DP). He’s being challenged by Stjepan Ga\u0161parovi\u0107 (HSS) and independent candidate Nikola Kajki\u0107<\/strong>, who may disrupt Bosan\u010di\u0107\u2019s plans.<\/p>\nIn Vukovar, incumbent mayor Ivan Penava (DP) is stepping aside, and his potential successor Domagoj Bili\u0107 (DP)<\/strong> is running with HDZ\u2019s backing. He’s up against Kruno Ragu\u017e (SDP) and Marijan Pavli\u010dek (Hrvatski suverenisti)<\/strong>. While Bili\u0107 is seen as the favorite, Pavli\u010dek reportedly enjoys strong local support, which could make this race surprisingly close.<\/p>\nOsijek-Baranja County<\/strong> is heading for a likely change. Nata\u0161a Trami\u0161ak (HDZ)<\/strong> is expected to succeed current prefect Mato Luki\u0107 (HDZ), with Sanja Bje\u017ean\u010devi\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong> as her main opponent. In Osijek, incumbent mayor Ivan Radi\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong> is widely favored to continue for another term, facing competition from Vjeran Marija\u0161evi\u0107 (SDP) and Boris Ki\u0161 (Mo\u017eemo!).<\/p>\nIn Brod-Posavina County<\/strong>, prefect Danijel Maru\u0161i\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong> is seeking another term and is considered the frontrunner, with Ivana Ribari\u0107 Majanovi\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong> as his main challenger. In Slavonski Brod, long-time independent mayor Mirko Duspara<\/strong>, in office since 2005, is again running and is expected to win, facing Tomislav Teki\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong>.<\/p>\nIn Po\u017eega-Slavonia County<\/strong>, incumbent prefect Antonija Jozi\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong> is seeking reelection and is seen as the favorite. The SDP<\/strong> is fielding Martina Vla\u0161i\u0107 Iljki\u0107<\/strong> as their candidate. For Po\u017eega mayor, HDZ\u2019s Borislav Mili\u010devi\u0107<\/strong> is favored to succeed \u017deljko Glavi\u0107 (HDZ), with SDP\u2019s Mitar Obradovi\u0107<\/strong> as his main rival.<\/p>\nIn Virovitica-Podravina County<\/strong>, HDZ is working to maintain its dominance with Igor Androvi\u0107 <\/strong>running for prefect and Ivica Kirin<\/strong> for mayor of Virovitica. The opposition enters the race with SDP\u2019s Mato Vuku\u0161i\u0107 <\/strong>for prefect and Sini\u0161a Prpi\u0107<\/strong> from the Croatian Party of Legal State for mayor.<\/p>\nWhile the current outlook suggests few changes in Slavonia, the real campaign is just beginning\u2014and surprises are still possible.<\/p>\n
Central Croatia: Will the Red Wave Shake Up the Counties?<\/strong><\/h3>\nIn Bjelovar-Bilogora County<\/strong>, current prefect Marko Maru\u0161i\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong> appears headed for a second-round runoff, where Ivana Jurkovi\u0107 Pi\u0161\u010devi\u0107 (HSLS)<\/strong> could pose a surprise threat. In the city of Bjelovar, HSLS’s Dario Hrebak<\/strong>, already two terms in office, is poised for a third.<\/p>\nIn Koprivnica-Kri\u017eevci County<\/strong>, long-time prefect Darko Koren (Mre\u017ea)<\/strong>, backed by HDZ, is aiming for another term. His main challenger, Tomislav Golubi\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong>, has a strong chance of flipping the county. In Koprivnica, mayor Mi\u0161el Jak\u0161i\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong> is expected to secure another term, although HDZ\u2019s Mladen Fajdeti\u0107<\/strong> is in the race.<\/p>\nIn Me\u0111imurje County<\/strong>, independent prefect Matija Posavec (NPS)<\/strong> remains solidly in control with strong local support through the North Independent Platform. The same platform backs incumbent \u010cakovec mayor Ljerka Cividini<\/strong>, who is likely to continue for another term.<\/p>\nVara\u017edin County<\/strong> may witness a tight contest: current prefect An\u0111elko Stri\u010dak (HDZ)<\/strong> is running again, but Bruno Ister (SDP)<\/strong> and veteran politician Radimir \u010ca\u010di\u0107 (Reformisti)<\/strong> could challenge his hold. In the city of Vara\u017edin, SDP\u2019s incumbent mayor Neven Bosilj<\/strong> is the favorite, competing against HDZ\u2019s Spomenka Ki\u0111emet Piska\u010d<\/strong>.<\/p>\nKrapina-Zagorje County<\/strong> remains a firm SDP stronghold, led by long-serving prefect \u017deljko Kolar<\/strong>. HDZ<\/strong> has entered the race with Zdravko Tu\u0161ek<\/strong>. In Krapina, mayor Zoran Gregurovi\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong> is the frontrunner to retain his post, facing SDP\u2019s Irena \u0160afranko<\/strong>.<\/p>\nIn Zagreb County<\/strong>, independent<\/strong> prefect Stjepan Ko\u017ei\u0107<\/strong>, supported by HDZ, is the favorite for a seventh term. His main challenger, Mihael Zmajlovi\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong>, could make this a very close race. In Velika Gorica, HDZ’s Kre\u0161imir A\u010dkar<\/strong> is favored for re-election, while SDP has nominated Ivana Mlinar<\/strong>.<\/p>\nSisak-Moslavina County<\/strong> features another classic HDZ\u2013SDP showdown. Prefect Ivan Celjak (HDZ)<\/strong> and Sisak mayor Kristina Iki\u0107 Bani\u010dek (SDP)<\/strong> are the leading contenders for their respective positions. Their party counterparts\u2014\u017deljko \u0110ermanovi\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong> for prefect and Domagoj Orli\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong> for mayor\u2014will try to tip the balance. The Sisak mayoral race is shaping up to be a tight one.<\/p>\nIn Karlovac County<\/strong>, HDZ aims to hold both the county and the city. However, this may be more difficult than expected if the opposition strengthens its presence in Karlovac. Prefect Martina Furdek-Hajdin<\/strong> and mayor Damir Mandi\u0107<\/strong> (both HDZ) are running again, facing Stjepan Mikulandri\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong> for prefect and independent Renata Goj\u0161i\u0107<\/strong> for mayor.<\/p>\nThis region shows much more volatility and potential for surprises, with HDZ likely to face setbacks in several areas\u2014except in Sisak, which could be the one place where the tide turns in their favor.<\/p>\n
Primorje, Istria, and Lika: Many Candidates, Much Uncertainty<\/strong><\/h3>\nIn Primorje-Gorski Kotar County<\/strong>, a leadership change is underway, with Ivica Lukanovi\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong> expected to succeed the outgoing prefect Zlatko Komadina (SDP) without major upheaval. His opponent is Alen Ru\u017ei\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong>. In Rijeka, we\u2019re witnessing a precedent in these elections: in a bid to retain the mayoral seat, the SDP<\/strong> has nominated current deputy mayor Sandra Krpan<\/strong>, who is also the current frontrunner, while incumbent mayor Marko Filipovi\u0107 is running as an independent<\/strong>, having left the SDP. Polls currently show him trailing behind HDZ\u2019s Denis Vukorepa and independent candidate Iva Rin\u010di\u0107. The campaign will ultimately decide who faces Krpan in the runoff.<\/a><\/p>\nIstria County<\/strong> remains uncertain until the very end. IDS president Dalibor Paus<\/strong> is the favorite for county prefect, but close behind are Sanja Radolovi\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong> and current prefect and former IDS president Boris Mileti\u0107<\/strong>, now running as an independent. We might not know who makes it to the second round until election night, as margins are currently razor-thin. Pazin, the county seat, remains somewhat outside the public spotlight, and the favorite there is incumbent mayor Suzana Ja\u0161i\u0107 (Mo\u017eemo!). The key battle is in Pula, where incumbent mayor Filip Zori\u010di\u0107 (independent)<\/strong> is running for re-election. However, Pe\u0111a Grbin (SDP)<\/strong> is currently leading in the polls, with Valter Boljun\u010di\u0107 (IDS)<\/strong> close behind \u2014 both seen as strong contenders for the runoff.<\/p>\nIn Lika-Senj County<\/strong>, a duel is expected between the current prefect and favorite Ernest Petry (HDZ)<\/strong> and SDP\u2019s Kre\u0161imir Culinovi\u0107<\/strong>. In the city of Gospi\u0107, the front-runner is Darko Milinovi\u0107 (LiPO)<\/strong>, who is running for re-election, while SDP <\/strong>is fielding Joso Vrkljan<\/strong> in an attempt to enter the race.<\/p>\nThese three counties seem like worlds apart \u2014 Lika and Rijeka appear more predictable, while Istria remains completely up in the air.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Mayors.png\")
Mayors forecast – local elections 2025<\/p><\/div>\n
Dalmatia: Can HDZ Hold Onto All Counties and Cities?<\/strong><\/h3>\nIn Zadar County<\/strong>, current prefect Bo\u017eidar Longin and Zadar mayor Branko Duki\u0107 (both HDZ<\/strong>) are stepping down. HDZ is fielding Josip Bilaver for prefect<\/strong> and former minister \u0160ime Erli\u0107 for mayor<\/strong>. SDP<\/strong> is entering the race with Jure Zub\u010di\u0107 for prefect<\/strong> and Daniel Radeta for mayor<\/strong>. A tight contest is expected for both positions, although the fresh, young HDZ faces are currently favored.<\/p>\nIn \u0160ibenik-Knin County<\/strong>, things appear much clearer and in HDZ\u2019s favor. Independent prefect Marko Jeli\u0107 is stepping down and being replaced by Pa\u0161ko Raki\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong>, whose main opponent is Petar Baranovi\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong>. In \u0160ibenik, \u017deljko Buri\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong> is expected to secure a fourth term, while SDP<\/strong> is running Ton\u010di Restovi\u0107<\/strong>.<\/p>\nIn Split-Dalmatia County<\/strong>, the campaign has been dominated by issues surrounding illegal construction. Heading into the final stretch, the favorites are current prefect Bla\u017eenko Boban (HDZ) and independent candidate Ivana Nin\u010devi\u0107 Lesandri\u0107, who could become the first opposition prefect in the county\u2019s history<\/a>. Alongside Zagreb, this is another region where Tomislav Jonji\u0107 is gaining significant traction. Incumbent mayor Ivica Puljak (Centar) is favored for another term, but it remains unclear who he will face in the runoff. Challengers include Tomislav \u0160uta (HDZ) and Davor Matijevi\u0107 (SDP)<\/a>. Forming a majority in the city council already looks like it will be a major headache.<\/p>\nIn Dubrovnik-Neretva County<\/strong>, the race to replace outgoing prefect Nikola Dobroslavi\u0107 (HDZ) is heating up between favorite Bla\u017e Pezo (HDZ)<\/strong>, Bo\u017eo Petrov (Most)<\/strong>, and Marko Gilja\u010da (Sr\u0111 je Grad)<\/strong>, who has SDP<\/strong> backing. For Most<\/strong>, this race \u2014 and the mayoral race in Metkovi\u0107, where Nikola Grmoja<\/strong> is challenging incumbent Dalibor Milan (HDZ)<\/strong> \u2014 could be make-or-break. Party infrastructure might tip the scales in the county. But in Dubrovnik itself, everything is still wide open. Incumbent mayor Mato Frankovi\u0107 (HDZ) is defending his position, but his challenger Anita Bona\u010di\u0107 Obradovi\u0107 (SDP), supported by Sr\u0111 je Grad, is surging \u2014 and according to some polls, she\u2019s now the favorite<\/a>.<\/p>\nThere could be major shifts \u2014 or everything might stay the same. If any races will be decided by the last days of the campaign, it\u2019s these four Dalmatian counties, where HDZ has the most to lose.<\/p>\n
City of Zagreb: Too Many Candidates, Too Few New Ideas<\/strong><\/h3>\nZagreb is clearly the main battleground in these elections. Everything is at stake. Incumbent mayor Tomislav Toma\u0161evi\u0107 (Mo\u017eemo!)<\/strong>, backed by SDP, is running for a second term, hoping to win in the first round along with a majority in the city assembly, thanks to a new coalition with SDP. But the game changed entirely when independent candidate Marija Selak Raspudi\u0107 entered the race at the last minute.<\/a> Alongside her, five other strong contenders are in play \u2014 Davor Bernardi\u0107 (Servus Zagreb), Mislav Herman (HDZ), Pavle Kalini\u0107, Ivica Lovri\u0107, and Tomislav Jonji\u0107. Speculation suggests Bernardi\u0107<\/strong> and Selak Raspudi\u0107<\/strong> might face off in the runoff, but there\u2019s still enough time for alliances, surprises \u2014 or blunders.<\/p>\nThe dynamics in Zagreb could overshadow every other campaign in the country. While Toma\u0161evi\u0107 seems secure, the real question is who will face him in the second round and what the final composition of the city assembly will look like.<\/p>\n
Political Endurance: Who\u2019s Going for a Sixth or Seventh Term<\/strong><\/h3>\nIn these elections, no fewer than 36 mayors are running for a fourth consecutive term, and 16 are aiming for a fifth. One name stands out: Tonka Iv\u010devi\u0107 (SDP) from Komi\u017ea \u2014 the only woman in this group \u2014 is entering her sixth electoral cycle. The longest-serving mayor is Darijo Vasili\u0107 from Krk, who has led the city since 1993. He\u2019s followed by Pirak (\u010cazma) and Kirin (Virovitica), both in office since 1999. The longest-serving independent is Duspara in Slavonski Brod, running for a sixth term, while HDZ\u2019s \u017deljko Turk (Zapre\u0161i\u0107) is going for his seventh. Knez from Biograd na Moru is aiming for a fifth.<\/p>\n
In the visuals, we\u2019ve highlighted the top two candidates in each county and major city \u2014 according to the latest polls and available data. And there\u2019s a twist: candidates circled in red are those Manjgura believes could ultimately win \u2014 just to give you a sense of where the political map might shift!<\/strong><\/p>\nWe\u2019ve previously made predictions for the EU<\/a> and parliamentary elections<\/a> held last year \u2014 you can judge for yourself how accurate we were.<\/p>\nIt\u2019s always useful to revisit the D\u2019Hondt method and how mandates are calculated in Croatian elections<\/a>. Follow all the latest updates in our Politics and Elections section<\/a>.<\/p>\nFinally, for the sake of transparency, it\u2019s important to note that in these elections, Manjgura is advising the following candidates: Anita Bona\u010di\u0107 Obradovi\u0107 (SDP) in Dubrovnik, Zoran Paunovi\u0107 (SDP) in Makarska, Sandra Krpan (SDP) in Rijeka, Ivica Lukanovi\u0107 (SDP) in Primorje-Gorski Kotar County, Stjepan Ko\u017ei\u0107 (independent) in Zagreb County, and Mirko Duspara (independent) in Slavonski Brod.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Starting today, the official election process begins for the upcoming local elections on May 18. However, the political deck has been reshuffling for months across nearly all counties and cities. For those just getting started now, better start preparing for 2029. Who will hold their ground, where will the races stay neck-and-neck until the very end, and where are impenetrable strategies already in motion? In our latest blog, we bring you an overview of candidates by county and city, with a spotlight on key matchups, potential surprises and the emerging trends shaping the campaign. We also share our take on how the candidates are likely to fare at the polls.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":44641,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_stopmodifiedupdate":false,"_modified_date":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2677,2673,2707],"tags":[2680,2681,3129,3596,3778,3950],"class_list":["post-44640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-politics-and-elections","category-blog-en","tag-elections","tag-croatian-elections","tag-kresimir-macan-en","tag-local-elections","tag-election-results","tag-local-elections-in-croatia"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Blog-Prefects.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44640","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44640"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44640\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":44713,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44640\/revisions\/44713"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/44641"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44640"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44640"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44640"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
In Vukovar, incumbent mayor Ivan Penava (DP) is stepping aside, and his potential successor Domagoj Bili\u0107 (DP)<\/strong> is running with HDZ\u2019s backing. He’s up against Kruno Ragu\u017e (SDP) and Marijan Pavli\u010dek (Hrvatski suverenisti)<\/strong>. While Bili\u0107 is seen as the favorite, Pavli\u010dek reportedly enjoys strong local support, which could make this race surprisingly close.<\/p>\n Osijek-Baranja County<\/strong> is heading for a likely change. Nata\u0161a Trami\u0161ak (HDZ)<\/strong> is expected to succeed current prefect Mato Luki\u0107 (HDZ), with Sanja Bje\u017ean\u010devi\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong> as her main opponent. In Osijek, incumbent mayor Ivan Radi\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong> is widely favored to continue for another term, facing competition from Vjeran Marija\u0161evi\u0107 (SDP) and Boris Ki\u0161 (Mo\u017eemo!).<\/p>\n In Brod-Posavina County<\/strong>, prefect Danijel Maru\u0161i\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong> is seeking another term and is considered the frontrunner, with Ivana Ribari\u0107 Majanovi\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong> as his main challenger. In Slavonski Brod, long-time independent mayor Mirko Duspara<\/strong>, in office since 2005, is again running and is expected to win, facing Tomislav Teki\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n In Po\u017eega-Slavonia County<\/strong>, incumbent prefect Antonija Jozi\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong> is seeking reelection and is seen as the favorite. The SDP<\/strong> is fielding Martina Vla\u0161i\u0107 Iljki\u0107<\/strong> as their candidate. For Po\u017eega mayor, HDZ\u2019s Borislav Mili\u010devi\u0107<\/strong> is favored to succeed \u017deljko Glavi\u0107 (HDZ), with SDP\u2019s Mitar Obradovi\u0107<\/strong> as his main rival.<\/p>\n In Virovitica-Podravina County<\/strong>, HDZ is working to maintain its dominance with Igor Androvi\u0107 <\/strong>running for prefect and Ivica Kirin<\/strong> for mayor of Virovitica. The opposition enters the race with SDP\u2019s Mato Vuku\u0161i\u0107 <\/strong>for prefect and Sini\u0161a Prpi\u0107<\/strong> from the Croatian Party of Legal State for mayor.<\/p>\n While the current outlook suggests few changes in Slavonia, the real campaign is just beginning\u2014and surprises are still possible.<\/p>\n In Bjelovar-Bilogora County<\/strong>, current prefect Marko Maru\u0161i\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong> appears headed for a second-round runoff, where Ivana Jurkovi\u0107 Pi\u0161\u010devi\u0107 (HSLS)<\/strong> could pose a surprise threat. In the city of Bjelovar, HSLS’s Dario Hrebak<\/strong>, already two terms in office, is poised for a third.<\/p>\n In Koprivnica-Kri\u017eevci County<\/strong>, long-time prefect Darko Koren (Mre\u017ea)<\/strong>, backed by HDZ, is aiming for another term. His main challenger, Tomislav Golubi\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong>, has a strong chance of flipping the county. In Koprivnica, mayor Mi\u0161el Jak\u0161i\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong> is expected to secure another term, although HDZ\u2019s Mladen Fajdeti\u0107<\/strong> is in the race.<\/p>\n In Me\u0111imurje County<\/strong>, independent prefect Matija Posavec (NPS)<\/strong> remains solidly in control with strong local support through the North Independent Platform. The same platform backs incumbent \u010cakovec mayor Ljerka Cividini<\/strong>, who is likely to continue for another term.<\/p>\n Vara\u017edin County<\/strong> may witness a tight contest: current prefect An\u0111elko Stri\u010dak (HDZ)<\/strong> is running again, but Bruno Ister (SDP)<\/strong> and veteran politician Radimir \u010ca\u010di\u0107 (Reformisti)<\/strong> could challenge his hold. In the city of Vara\u017edin, SDP\u2019s incumbent mayor Neven Bosilj<\/strong> is the favorite, competing against HDZ\u2019s Spomenka Ki\u0111emet Piska\u010d<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Krapina-Zagorje County<\/strong> remains a firm SDP stronghold, led by long-serving prefect \u017deljko Kolar<\/strong>. HDZ<\/strong> has entered the race with Zdravko Tu\u0161ek<\/strong>. In Krapina, mayor Zoran Gregurovi\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong> is the frontrunner to retain his post, facing SDP\u2019s Irena \u0160afranko<\/strong>.<\/p>\n In Zagreb County<\/strong>, independent<\/strong> prefect Stjepan Ko\u017ei\u0107<\/strong>, supported by HDZ, is the favorite for a seventh term. His main challenger, Mihael Zmajlovi\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong>, could make this a very close race. In Velika Gorica, HDZ’s Kre\u0161imir A\u010dkar<\/strong> is favored for re-election, while SDP has nominated Ivana Mlinar<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Sisak-Moslavina County<\/strong> features another classic HDZ\u2013SDP showdown. Prefect Ivan Celjak (HDZ)<\/strong> and Sisak mayor Kristina Iki\u0107 Bani\u010dek (SDP)<\/strong> are the leading contenders for their respective positions. Their party counterparts\u2014\u017deljko \u0110ermanovi\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong> for prefect and Domagoj Orli\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong> for mayor\u2014will try to tip the balance. The Sisak mayoral race is shaping up to be a tight one.<\/p>\n In Karlovac County<\/strong>, HDZ aims to hold both the county and the city. However, this may be more difficult than expected if the opposition strengthens its presence in Karlovac. Prefect Martina Furdek-Hajdin<\/strong> and mayor Damir Mandi\u0107<\/strong> (both HDZ) are running again, facing Stjepan Mikulandri\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong> for prefect and independent Renata Goj\u0161i\u0107<\/strong> for mayor.<\/p>\n This region shows much more volatility and potential for surprises, with HDZ likely to face setbacks in several areas\u2014except in Sisak, which could be the one place where the tide turns in their favor.<\/p>\n In Primorje-Gorski Kotar County<\/strong>, a leadership change is underway, with Ivica Lukanovi\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong> expected to succeed the outgoing prefect Zlatko Komadina (SDP) without major upheaval. His opponent is Alen Ru\u017ei\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong>. In Rijeka, we\u2019re witnessing a precedent in these elections: in a bid to retain the mayoral seat, the SDP<\/strong> has nominated current deputy mayor Sandra Krpan<\/strong>, who is also the current frontrunner, while incumbent mayor Marko Filipovi\u0107 is running as an independent<\/strong>, having left the SDP. Polls currently show him trailing behind HDZ\u2019s Denis Vukorepa and independent candidate Iva Rin\u010di\u0107. The campaign will ultimately decide who faces Krpan in the runoff.<\/a><\/p>\n Istria County<\/strong> remains uncertain until the very end. IDS president Dalibor Paus<\/strong> is the favorite for county prefect, but close behind are Sanja Radolovi\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong> and current prefect and former IDS president Boris Mileti\u0107<\/strong>, now running as an independent. We might not know who makes it to the second round until election night, as margins are currently razor-thin. Pazin, the county seat, remains somewhat outside the public spotlight, and the favorite there is incumbent mayor Suzana Ja\u0161i\u0107 (Mo\u017eemo!). The key battle is in Pula, where incumbent mayor Filip Zori\u010di\u0107 (independent)<\/strong> is running for re-election. However, Pe\u0111a Grbin (SDP)<\/strong> is currently leading in the polls, with Valter Boljun\u010di\u0107 (IDS)<\/strong> close behind \u2014 both seen as strong contenders for the runoff.<\/p>\n In Lika-Senj County<\/strong>, a duel is expected between the current prefect and favorite Ernest Petry (HDZ)<\/strong> and SDP\u2019s Kre\u0161imir Culinovi\u0107<\/strong>. In the city of Gospi\u0107, the front-runner is Darko Milinovi\u0107 (LiPO)<\/strong>, who is running for re-election, while SDP <\/strong>is fielding Joso Vrkljan<\/strong> in an attempt to enter the race.<\/p>\n These three counties seem like worlds apart \u2014 Lika and Rijeka appear more predictable, while Istria remains completely up in the air.<\/p>\n Mayors forecast – local elections 2025<\/p><\/div>\n In Zadar County<\/strong>, current prefect Bo\u017eidar Longin and Zadar mayor Branko Duki\u0107 (both HDZ<\/strong>) are stepping down. HDZ is fielding Josip Bilaver for prefect<\/strong> and former minister \u0160ime Erli\u0107 for mayor<\/strong>. SDP<\/strong> is entering the race with Jure Zub\u010di\u0107 for prefect<\/strong> and Daniel Radeta for mayor<\/strong>. A tight contest is expected for both positions, although the fresh, young HDZ faces are currently favored.<\/p>\n In \u0160ibenik-Knin County<\/strong>, things appear much clearer and in HDZ\u2019s favor. Independent prefect Marko Jeli\u0107 is stepping down and being replaced by Pa\u0161ko Raki\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong>, whose main opponent is Petar Baranovi\u0107 (SDP)<\/strong>. In \u0160ibenik, \u017deljko Buri\u0107 (HDZ)<\/strong> is expected to secure a fourth term, while SDP<\/strong> is running Ton\u010di Restovi\u0107<\/strong>.<\/p>\n In Split-Dalmatia County<\/strong>, the campaign has been dominated by issues surrounding illegal construction. Heading into the final stretch, the favorites are current prefect Bla\u017eenko Boban (HDZ) and independent candidate Ivana Nin\u010devi\u0107 Lesandri\u0107, who could become the first opposition prefect in the county\u2019s history<\/a>. Alongside Zagreb, this is another region where Tomislav Jonji\u0107 is gaining significant traction. Incumbent mayor Ivica Puljak (Centar) is favored for another term, but it remains unclear who he will face in the runoff. Challengers include Tomislav \u0160uta (HDZ) and Davor Matijevi\u0107 (SDP)<\/a>. Forming a majority in the city council already looks like it will be a major headache.<\/p>\n In Dubrovnik-Neretva County<\/strong>, the race to replace outgoing prefect Nikola Dobroslavi\u0107 (HDZ) is heating up between favorite Bla\u017e Pezo (HDZ)<\/strong>, Bo\u017eo Petrov (Most)<\/strong>, and Marko Gilja\u010da (Sr\u0111 je Grad)<\/strong>, who has SDP<\/strong> backing. For Most<\/strong>, this race \u2014 and the mayoral race in Metkovi\u0107, where Nikola Grmoja<\/strong> is challenging incumbent Dalibor Milan (HDZ)<\/strong> \u2014 could be make-or-break. Party infrastructure might tip the scales in the county. But in Dubrovnik itself, everything is still wide open. Incumbent mayor Mato Frankovi\u0107 (HDZ) is defending his position, but his challenger Anita Bona\u010di\u0107 Obradovi\u0107 (SDP), supported by Sr\u0111 je Grad, is surging \u2014 and according to some polls, she\u2019s now the favorite<\/a>.<\/p>\n There could be major shifts \u2014 or everything might stay the same. If any races will be decided by the last days of the campaign, it\u2019s these four Dalmatian counties, where HDZ has the most to lose.<\/p>\n Zagreb is clearly the main battleground in these elections. Everything is at stake. Incumbent mayor Tomislav Toma\u0161evi\u0107 (Mo\u017eemo!)<\/strong>, backed by SDP, is running for a second term, hoping to win in the first round along with a majority in the city assembly, thanks to a new coalition with SDP. But the game changed entirely when independent candidate Marija Selak Raspudi\u0107 entered the race at the last minute.<\/a> Alongside her, five other strong contenders are in play \u2014 Davor Bernardi\u0107 (Servus Zagreb), Mislav Herman (HDZ), Pavle Kalini\u0107, Ivica Lovri\u0107, and Tomislav Jonji\u0107. Speculation suggests Bernardi\u0107<\/strong> and Selak Raspudi\u0107<\/strong> might face off in the runoff, but there\u2019s still enough time for alliances, surprises \u2014 or blunders.<\/p>\n The dynamics in Zagreb could overshadow every other campaign in the country. While Toma\u0161evi\u0107 seems secure, the real question is who will face him in the second round and what the final composition of the city assembly will look like.<\/p>\n In these elections, no fewer than 36 mayors are running for a fourth consecutive term, and 16 are aiming for a fifth. One name stands out: Tonka Iv\u010devi\u0107 (SDP) from Komi\u017ea \u2014 the only woman in this group \u2014 is entering her sixth electoral cycle. The longest-serving mayor is Darijo Vasili\u0107 from Krk, who has led the city since 1993. He\u2019s followed by Pirak (\u010cazma) and Kirin (Virovitica), both in office since 1999. The longest-serving independent is Duspara in Slavonski Brod, running for a sixth term, while HDZ\u2019s \u017deljko Turk (Zapre\u0161i\u0107) is going for his seventh. Knez from Biograd na Moru is aiming for a fifth.<\/p>\n In the visuals, we\u2019ve highlighted the top two candidates in each county and major city \u2014 according to the latest polls and available data. And there\u2019s a twist: candidates circled in red are those Manjgura believes could ultimately win \u2014 just to give you a sense of where the political map might shift!<\/strong><\/p>\n We\u2019ve previously made predictions for the EU<\/a> and parliamentary elections<\/a> held last year \u2014 you can judge for yourself how accurate we were.<\/p>\n It\u2019s always useful to revisit the D\u2019Hondt method and how mandates are calculated in Croatian elections<\/a>. Follow all the latest updates in our Politics and Elections section<\/a>.<\/p>\n Finally, for the sake of transparency, it\u2019s important to note that in these elections, Manjgura is advising the following candidates: Anita Bona\u010di\u0107 Obradovi\u0107 (SDP) in Dubrovnik, Zoran Paunovi\u0107 (SDP) in Makarska, Sandra Krpan (SDP) in Rijeka, Ivica Lukanovi\u0107 (SDP) in Primorje-Gorski Kotar County, Stjepan Ko\u017ei\u0107 (independent) in Zagreb County, and Mirko Duspara (independent) in Slavonski Brod.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Starting today, the official election process begins for the upcoming local elections on May 18. However, the political deck has been reshuffling for months across nearly all counties and cities. For those just getting started now, better start preparing for 2029. Who will hold their ground, where will the races stay neck-and-neck until the very end, and where are impenetrable strategies already in motion? In our latest blog, we bring you an overview of candidates by county and city, with a spotlight on key matchups, potential surprises and the emerging trends shaping the campaign. We also share our take on how the candidates are likely to fare at the polls.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":44641,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_stopmodifiedupdate":false,"_modified_date":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2677,2673,2707],"tags":[2680,2681,3129,3596,3778,3950],"class_list":["post-44640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","category-politics-and-elections","category-blog-en","tag-elections","tag-croatian-elections","tag-kresimir-macan-en","tag-local-elections","tag-election-results","tag-local-elections-in-croatia"],"acf":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Blog-Prefects.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44640","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44640"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44640\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":44713,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44640\/revisions\/44713"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/44641"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44640"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44640"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/manjgura.hr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44640"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Central Croatia: Will the Red Wave Shake Up the Counties?<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Primorje, Istria, and Lika: Many Candidates, Much Uncertainty<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Dalmatia: Can HDZ Hold Onto All Counties and Cities?<\/strong><\/h3>\n
City of Zagreb: Too Many Candidates, Too Few New Ideas<\/strong><\/h3>\n
Political Endurance: Who\u2019s Going for a Sixth or Seventh Term<\/strong><\/h3>\n