HRManjgura’s Traffic Light for the 2025 Local Elections: Key Races, Familiar Names, and New Faces
Starting today, the official election process begins for the upcoming local elections on May 18. However, the political deck has been reshuffling for months across nearly all counties and cities. For those just getting started now, better start preparing for 2029. Who will hold their ground, where will the races stay neck-and-neck until the very end, and where are impenetrable strategies already in motion? In our latest blog, we bring you an overview of candidates by county and city, with a spotlight on key matchups, potential surprises and the emerging trends shaping the campaign. We also share our take on how the candidates are likely to fare at the polls.
County prefects forecast – local elections 2025
All things considered, HDZ could face challenges in as many as seven counties, most of which are at risk from SDP. SDP might take control of Pula, but could lose Sisak, while HDZ is at risk of losing Dubrovnik.
Slavonia: Stability with a Dose of Uncertainty in Vukovar and Vukovar-Srijem County
In Vukovar-Srijem County, the race to succeed current prefect Franjo Orešković (HDZ) is heating up. The frontrunner is Ivan Bosančić (HDZ), current mayor of Vinkovci, running with the support of the Homeland Movement (DP). He’s being challenged by Stjepan Gašparović (HSS) and independent candidate Nikola Kajkić, who may disrupt Bosančić’s plans.
In Vukovar, incumbent mayor Ivan Penava (DP) is stepping aside, and his potential successor Domagoj Bilić (DP) is running with HDZ’s backing. He’s up against Kruno Raguž (SDP) and Marijan Pavliček (Hrvatski suverenisti). While Bilić is seen as the favorite, Pavliček reportedly enjoys strong local support, which could make this race surprisingly close.
Osijek-Baranja County is heading for a likely change. Nataša Tramišak (HDZ) is expected to succeed current prefect Mato Lukić (HDZ), with Sanja Bježančević (SDP) as her main opponent. In Osijek, incumbent mayor Ivan Radić (HDZ) is widely favored to continue for another term, facing competition from Vjeran Marijašević (SDP) and Boris Kiš (Možemo!).
In Brod-Posavina County, prefect Danijel Marušić (HDZ) is seeking another term and is considered the frontrunner, with Ivana Ribarić Majanović (SDP) as his main challenger. In Slavonski Brod, long-time independent mayor Mirko Duspara, in office since 2005, is again running and is expected to win, facing Tomislav Tekić (HDZ).
In Požega-Slavonia County, incumbent prefect Antonija Jozić (HDZ) is seeking reelection and is seen as the favorite. The SDP is fielding Martina Vlašić Iljkić as their candidate. For Požega mayor, HDZ’s Borislav Miličević is favored to succeed Željko Glavić (HDZ), with SDP’s Mitar Obradović as his main rival.
In Virovitica-Podravina County, HDZ is working to maintain its dominance with Igor Andrović running for prefect and Ivica Kirin for mayor of Virovitica. The opposition enters the race with SDP’s Mato Vukušić for prefect and Siniša Prpić from the Croatian Party of Legal State for mayor.
While the current outlook suggests few changes in Slavonia, the real campaign is just beginning—and surprises are still possible.
Central Croatia: Will the Red Wave Shake Up the Counties?
In Bjelovar-Bilogora County, current prefect Marko Marušić (HDZ) appears headed for a second-round runoff, where Ivana Jurković Piščević (HSLS) could pose a surprise threat. In the city of Bjelovar, HSLS’s Dario Hrebak, already two terms in office, is poised for a third.
In Koprivnica-Križevci County, long-time prefect Darko Koren (Mreža), backed by HDZ, is aiming for another term. His main challenger, Tomislav Golubić (SDP), has a strong chance of flipping the county. In Koprivnica, mayor Mišel Jakšić (SDP) is expected to secure another term, although HDZ’s Mladen Fajdetić is in the race.
In Međimurje County, independent prefect Matija Posavec (NPS) remains solidly in control with strong local support through the North Independent Platform. The same platform backs incumbent Čakovec mayor Ljerka Cividini, who is likely to continue for another term.
Varaždin County may witness a tight contest: current prefect Anđelko Stričak (HDZ) is running again, but Bruno Ister (SDP) and veteran politician Radimir Čačić (Reformisti) could challenge his hold. In the city of Varaždin, SDP’s incumbent mayor Neven Bosilj is the favorite, competing against HDZ’s Spomenka Kiđemet Piskač.
Krapina-Zagorje County remains a firm SDP stronghold, led by long-serving prefect Željko Kolar. HDZ has entered the race with Zdravko Tušek. In Krapina, mayor Zoran Gregurović (HDZ) is the frontrunner to retain his post, facing SDP’s Irena Šafranko.
In Zagreb County, independent prefect Stjepan Kožić, supported by HDZ, is the favorite for a seventh term. His main challenger, Mihael Zmajlović (SDP), could make this a very close race. In Velika Gorica, HDZ’s Krešimir Ačkar is favored for re-election, while SDP has nominated Ivana Mlinar.
Sisak-Moslavina County features another classic HDZ–SDP showdown. Prefect Ivan Celjak (HDZ) and Sisak mayor Kristina Ikić Baniček (SDP) are the leading contenders for their respective positions. Their party counterparts—Željko Đermanović (SDP) for prefect and Domagoj Orlić (HDZ) for mayor—will try to tip the balance. The Sisak mayoral race is shaping up to be a tight one.
In Karlovac County, HDZ aims to hold both the county and the city. However, this may be more difficult than expected if the opposition strengthens its presence in Karlovac. Prefect Martina Furdek-Hajdin and mayor Damir Mandić (both HDZ) are running again, facing Stjepan Mikulandrić (SDP) for prefect and independent Renata Gojšić for mayor.
This region shows much more volatility and potential for surprises, with HDZ likely to face setbacks in several areas—except in Sisak, which could be the one place where the tide turns in their favor.
Primorje, Istria, and Lika: Many Candidates, Much Uncertainty
In Primorje-Gorski Kotar County, a leadership change is underway, with Ivica Lukanović (SDP) expected to succeed the outgoing prefect Zlatko Komadina (SDP) without major upheaval. His opponent is Alen Ružić (HDZ). In Rijeka, we’re witnessing a precedent in these elections: in a bid to retain the mayoral seat, the SDP has nominated current deputy mayor Sandra Krpan, who is also the current frontrunner, while incumbent mayor Marko Filipović is running as an independent, having left the SDP. Polls currently show him trailing behind HDZ’s Denis Vukorepa and independent candidate Iva Rinčić. The campaign will ultimately decide who faces Krpan in the runoff.
Istria County remains uncertain until the very end. IDS president Dalibor Paus is the favorite for county prefect, but close behind are Sanja Radolović (SDP) and current prefect and former IDS president Boris Miletić, now running as an independent. We might not know who makes it to the second round until election night, as margins are currently razor-thin. Pazin, the county seat, remains somewhat outside the public spotlight, and the favorite there is incumbent mayor Suzana Jašić (Možemo!). The key battle is in Pula, where incumbent mayor Filip Zoričić (independent) is running for re-election. However, Peđa Grbin (SDP) is currently leading in the polls, with Valter Boljunčić (IDS) close behind — both seen as strong contenders for the runoff.
In Lika-Senj County, a duel is expected between the current prefect and favorite Ernest Petry (HDZ) and SDP’s Krešimir Culinović. In the city of Gospić, the front-runner is Darko Milinović (LiPO), who is running for re-election, while SDP is fielding Joso Vrkljan in an attempt to enter the race.
These three counties seem like worlds apart — Lika and Rijeka appear more predictable, while Istria remains completely up in the air.
Mayors forecast – local elections 2025
Dalmatia: Can HDZ Hold Onto All Counties and Cities?
In Zadar County, current prefect Božidar Longin and Zadar mayor Branko Dukić (both HDZ) are stepping down. HDZ is fielding Josip Bilaver for prefect and former minister Šime Erlić for mayor. SDP is entering the race with Jure Zubčić for prefect and Daniel Radeta for mayor. A tight contest is expected for both positions, although the fresh, young HDZ faces are currently favored.
In Šibenik-Knin County, things appear much clearer and in HDZ’s favor. Independent prefect Marko Jelić is stepping down and being replaced by Paško Rakić (HDZ), whose main opponent is Petar Baranović (SDP). In Šibenik, Željko Burić (HDZ) is expected to secure a fourth term, while SDP is running Tonči Restović.
In Split-Dalmatia County, the campaign has been dominated by issues surrounding illegal construction. Heading into the final stretch, the favorites are current prefect Blaženko Boban (HDZ) and independent candidate Ivana Ninčević Lesandrić, who could become the first opposition prefect in the county’s history. Alongside Zagreb, this is another region where Tomislav Jonjić is gaining significant traction. Incumbent mayor Ivica Puljak (Centar) is favored for another term, but it remains unclear who he will face in the runoff. Challengers include Tomislav Šuta (HDZ) and Davor Matijević (SDP). Forming a majority in the city council already looks like it will be a major headache.
In Dubrovnik-Neretva County, the race to replace outgoing prefect Nikola Dobroslavić (HDZ) is heating up between favorite Blaž Pezo (HDZ), Božo Petrov (Most), and Marko Giljača (Srđ je Grad), who has SDP backing. For Most, this race — and the mayoral race in Metković, where Nikola Grmoja is challenging incumbent Dalibor Milan (HDZ) — could be make-or-break. Party infrastructure might tip the scales in the county. But in Dubrovnik itself, everything is still wide open. Incumbent mayor Mato Franković (HDZ) is defending his position, but his challenger Anita Bonačić Obradović (SDP), supported by Srđ je Grad, is surging — and according to some polls, she’s now the favorite.
There could be major shifts — or everything might stay the same. If any races will be decided by the last days of the campaign, it’s these four Dalmatian counties, where HDZ has the most to lose.
City of Zagreb: Too Many Candidates, Too Few New Ideas
Zagreb is clearly the main battleground in these elections. Everything is at stake. Incumbent mayor Tomislav Tomašević (Možemo!), backed by SDP, is running for a second term, hoping to win in the first round along with a majority in the city assembly, thanks to a new coalition with SDP. But the game changed entirely when independent candidate Marija Selak Raspudić entered the race at the last minute. Alongside her, five other strong contenders are in play — Davor Bernardić (Servus Zagreb), Mislav Herman (HDZ), Pavle Kalinić, Ivica Lovrić, and Tomislav Jonjić. Speculation suggests Bernardić and Selak Raspudić might face off in the runoff, but there’s still enough time for alliances, surprises — or blunders.
The dynamics in Zagreb could overshadow every other campaign in the country. While Tomašević seems secure, the real question is who will face him in the second round and what the final composition of the city assembly will look like.
Political Endurance: Who’s Going for a Sixth or Seventh Term
In these elections, no fewer than 36 mayors are running for a fourth consecutive term, and 16 are aiming for a fifth. One name stands out: Tonka Ivčević (SDP) from Komiža — the only woman in this group — is entering her sixth electoral cycle. The longest-serving mayor is Darijo Vasilić from Krk, who has led the city since 1993. He’s followed by Pirak (Čazma) and Kirin (Virovitica), both in office since 1999. The longest-serving independent is Duspara in Slavonski Brod, running for a sixth term, while HDZ’s Željko Turk (Zaprešić) is going for his seventh. Knez from Biograd na Moru is aiming for a fifth.
In the visuals, we’ve highlighted the top two candidates in each county and major city — according to the latest polls and available data. And there’s a twist: candidates circled in red are those Manjgura believes could ultimately win — just to give you a sense of where the political map might shift!
We’ve previously made predictions for the EU and parliamentary elections held last year — you can judge for yourself how accurate we were.
It’s always useful to revisit the D’Hondt method and how mandates are calculated in Croatian elections. Follow all the latest updates in our Politics and Elections section.
Finally, for the sake of transparency, it’s important to note that in these elections, Manjgura is advising the following candidates: Anita Bonačić Obradović (SDP) in Dubrovnik, Zoran Paunović (SDP) in Makarska, Sandra Krpan (SDP) in Rijeka, Ivica Lukanović (SDP) in Primorje-Gorski Kotar County, Stjepan Kožić (independent) in Zagreb County, and Mirko Duspara (independent) in Slavonski Brod.
Tags: local elections, election results, local elections in Croatia, elections, croatian elections, Krešimir MacanAlso read following…
