HRThe IPSOS exit poll accurately predicted the final results of the parliamentary elections
"Exit polls are the only tool to find out who voted for whom and when they decided to go to the polls. It is confirmed that Croatia has had a very professional public opinion survey since 2000, and for a number of cycles we have exit polls that are always within the statistical error of the survey. And this time the result is almost correct and we should be proud that we have such professional market research and that we have such instruments, because then we can all rely on them" concluded Macan.
Comparison of the ISPOS exit poll and the final election results
In this year’s parliamentary elections in Croatia, the exit poll of the agency Ipsos Puls proved to be quite accurate in forecasting the allocation of mandates and was “wrong” in only two of the 140 mandates that are elected to the Croatian Parliament in 10 electoral units. The trend of exit polls as very precise continues, as in 2020 they gave HDZ (Christian Democrats) 62 mandates and the Restart coalition (Socialdemocrats) 43 – while the final result in Croatia was 63:41. It is important to note that exit polls are conducted only for 10 electoral units in Croatia, so the final results of mandates without 3 mandates from the diaspora should be compared.
An exit poll is a research method used in political and other research to collect data on the opinions, attitudes or behavior of respondents immediately after they have performed a specific activity, in this case voting in an election. This type of survey is the only one that allows researchers to collect basic socio-demographic data about voters in addition to information on who they voted for, in order to ultimately know the profile of voters of certain parties, as well as some other issues.
In order to get a more precise picture of voter sentiment movement in the last few weeks through pre-election surveys, you can look the document election surveys and the number of mandates and compare the overall trend and estimates of pre-election surveys, exit polls and final election results.
Croatian elections 2024 – overview of pre-election polls by electoral units
PR expert and Manjugra director Krešimir Macan points out that Ipsos did not correctly predict only two out of 140 mandates and expressed vast satisfaction with the results when comparing the exit polls and the results.
“I would like this success of Ipsos to be presented to the public as much as possible so that they can see that public opinion surveys do not determine the results of the election, but only show the mood at a given moment. And secondly, a precise exit poll already at the beginning of the election night allows you to know what happens with the elections,” he told the HINA news agency in a short analysis under the title Exit poll almost completely guessed the election results this time.
He added that the accuracy of the exit polls was confirmed by the results, which came incredibly quickly, expressing, as a man who works and analyzes elections, his satisfaction with the election infrastructure.
“Exit polls are the only tool to find out who voted for whom and when they decided to go to the polls. It is confirmed that Croatia has had a very professional public opinion survey since 2000, and for a number of cycles we have exit polls that are always within the statistical error of the survey. And this time the result is almost correct and we should be proud that we have such professional market research and that we have such instruments, because then we can all rely on them” concluded Macan.
Voter preferences by level of education
Voter preferences by age group
Voter preferences by gender
Voter preferences by gender
Voter preferences by voters who did not vote in the 2020 elections.
In general, if 2024 is compared to 2020, it is evident that the pre-election surveys showed voter preferences much more precisely than 4 years ago – compare for yourself what they predicted then that the final result would be HDZ 63 Restart coalition 41 – Results of the 2015 parliamentary elections and 2016 and the last polls for the 2020 elections.
Tags: Croatian 2024 elections, exit poll, croatian elections poll, Croatian politics, HDZ, Rijeke pravde, politicsAlso read following…
